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The End of Oil: On the Edge of a Perilous New World Kindle Edition
Petroleum is so deeply entrenched in our economy, politics, and daily lives that even modest efforts to phase it out are fought tooth and nail. Companies and governments depend on oil revenues. Developing nations see oil as their only means to industrial success. And the Western middle class refuses to modify its energy-dependent lifestyle.
But even by conservative estimates, we will have burned through most of the world’s accessible oil within mere decades. What will we use in its place to maintain a global economy and political system that are entirely reliant on cheap, readily available energy?
In The End of Oil, journalist Paul Roberts talks to both oil optimists and pessimists around the world. He delves deep into the economics and politics, considers the promises and pitfalls of oil alternatives, and shows that—even though the world energy system has begun its epochal transition—we need to take a more proactive stance to avoid catastrophic disruption and dislocation.
- LanguageEnglish
- PublisherMariner Books
- Publication dateApril 5, 2005
- File size1436 KB
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Editorial Reviews
Amazon.com Review
As Roberts makes abundantly clear, the major oil players in the world wield their enormous economic and political power in order to maintain the status quo. Of course, they get plenty of help from the tens of millions of consumers, particularly in the U.S. and Europe, who guzzle oil as if there is an unlimited supply. And this demand shows no sign of abating--nearly half of the world's population lives without the benefits of fossil fuels and they desperately want to be among the haves. In countries such as China and India, where energy systems are already breaking down, Roberts discusses how they are looking to oil to fuel their race for development, in many cases ignoring environmental considerations altogether.
Though there is much to be pessimistic about, Roberts does uncover some positive developments, such as the race for alternative energy sources, notably hydrogen fuel cells, which could help to ease us off of our oil dependence before a full-blown energy crisis occurs. No one book could cover every aspect of what Roberts calls "arguably the most serious crisis ever to face industrial society," but The End of Oil is a remarkably informative and balanced introduction to this pressing subject. --Shawn Carkonen
From Publishers Weekly
Copyright © Reed Business Information, a division of Reed Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
From The New Yorker
Copyright © 2005 The New Yorker
From Booklist
Copyright © American Library Association. All rights reserved
Review
"Brilliant" The Baltimore Sun
"A stunning piece of work -- perhaps the best single book ever produced about our energy economy and its environmental implications." New York Review of Books
"An extraordinarily clear and powerful analysis of what is arguably the most serious crisis our industrial society has ever faced." Boston Herald
About the Author
From The Washington Post
Paul Roberts predicts nothing so dramatic in this timely, important but uneven book. By "the end of oil," he means not the absolute exhaustion of the planet's petroleum deposits but a subtler, though scarcely less disruptive transformation. The world's supply of oil, he argues, is soon destined to "peak," after which our civilization will somehow have to manage with ever-declining supplies. With long-term global demand for oil meanwhile climbing relentlessly, sustained shortages could unleash punishing price spikes, worldwide inflation, recession and even armed conflict as nations use force to secure the black gold they cannot live without.
According to Roberts, a contributor to Harper's who visited Saudi Arabia and Azerbaijan and interviewed a range of industry, government and private experts for this book, there is little dispute among insiders that an oil peak is inevitable someday; oil is, after all, a finite resource. But there is considerable disagreement about when that will occur. Optimists, such as those in the U.S. Geological Survey and the Energy Information Agency, foresee no peak before 2035. "Pessimists, by contrast," Roberts writes, "a group whose members include geologists, industry analysts, and a surprising number of oil industry and government officials, believe that a peak may come much sooner -- perhaps as soon as 2005." That 30-year difference is crucial. To avoid the disaster scenario outlined above, the world must put in place substitute sources of energy, and a system for delivering them, before the peak occurs. Otherwise, shortages are certain and chaos likely. Establishing an alternative system will be no small challenge, however, for it must displace the 40 percent of global energy demand that is currently met by oil. Historically, human societies have needed about 50 years to shift from one energy foundation to another. Wood, for example, gave way to coal during the early 19th century and coal to oil in the mid-20th. Given how little the United States in particular has done so far to develop successful alternatives, one must hope the optimists are right in saying that we have decades, not months or years, to leave oil behind.
Yet paradoxically, the looming danger of climate change argues for quitting petroleum as soon as possible. This book had already gone to press by the time an elite Pentagon planning unit's report appeared in Fortune in February, warning that climate change was a national security threat of the greatest urgency that could cause mega-droughts, mass starvation and even nuclear war by 2020. But Roberts's treatment of the subject confirms a crucial point: Even if the Earth contained enough oil to fuel civilization for 500 years, humans would be foolish to burn it all, for the carbon released in the process would extinguish whatever chance we have of avoiding catastrophic warming. In the meantime, control of the world's dwindling oil supply will continue to confer immense power on its owners. Here, Roberts's reporting offers valuable background to the American-led war in Iraq, for he demonstrates that whoever rules the Middle East -- especially Iran, Iraq and above all Saudi Arabia -- is certain to dominate world oil decisions for the rest of the petroleum era. True, new suppliers have entered the market over the past 20 years, but the geological fact remains that the largest and cheapest deposits of oil on earth are located beneath the Middle East. Even optimists, reports Roberts, concede that non-OPEC, non-Middle East oil will peak between 2015 and 2020. After that point, the Middle East's control will become irresistible.
Roberts thus dismisses as "patently absurd" the Bush administration's denials that the invasion of Iraq was about oil. He even argues that the undeclared aim of the war was not simply to capture Iraq's oil but to permanently break OPEC's power over global supply. It's a plausible, provocative thesis. The problem is, the only sources he cites for it are two unnamed former government officials and two outside analysts, none of whom offers anything approaching documentary proof.
It's a shortcoming that unfortunately pervades this book. Too often, Roberts provides no sourcing for statements that are either debatable (e.g., implementing the Kyoto protocol on climate change would cost the United States 2 percent of its gross national product per year) or arresting (urban air pollution kills 4 million people a year in China). Especially odd is how many sources go unnamed even when they offer the blandest of quotes. Finally, some "facts" cited here are simply wrong. Climate change did not raise sea levels 10 inches in the 20th century (though it may well do so in the 21st). And the World Bank has, alas, by no means grown reluctant to finance large energy projects in the Third World.
Roberts finds firmer ground in his final chapter about how to escape this conundrum. Contrary both to the Bush-Cheney stress on boosting fossil fuel production and environmentalists' calls for a quick shift to a solar-hydrogen economy, it is energy efficiency that could save the day. Sexy? No. But improving the efficiency with which we use oil and other forms of energy is by far the fastest, cheapest and most far-reaching way to begin kicking the carbon habit -- and to buy us time to get real alternatives up and running. One big obstacle is that government subsidies, especially but not only in the United States, still favor carbon-based fuels, so the market sees them as a good buy. But just as Washington, through taxes, has forced the price of cigarettes to reflect the health costs that smoking imposed on society, Roberts argues, so could government make the market reflect the social costs of continued reliance on carbon fuels.
Such a shift is unthinkable under the Bush administration, but if the environmentally minded John Kerry wins in November, the outlook could brighten. In any case, the longer we wait to wean ourselves off oil, the more costly, in all respects, our withdrawal will be.
Reviewed by Mark Hertsgaard
Copyright 2004, The Washington Post Co. All Rights Reserved.
Product details
- ASIN : B003WUYPME
- Publisher : Mariner Books; 1st edition (April 5, 2005)
- Publication date : April 5, 2005
- Language : English
- File size : 1436 KB
- Text-to-Speech : Enabled
- Screen Reader : Supported
- Enhanced typesetting : Enabled
- X-Ray : Not Enabled
- Word Wise : Enabled
- Sticky notes : On Kindle Scribe
- Print length : 401 pages
- Best Sellers Rank: #1,164,769 in Kindle Store (See Top 100 in Kindle Store)
- Customer Reviews:
About the authors
Author News: "The Impulse Society" long-listed for the 2015 PEN/John Kenneth Galbraith Award for Nonfiction.
* * * *
A journalist since 1983, Paul Roberts writes and lectures frequently on the complex interplay of business, technology, psychology, and the natural world. His most recent book, "The Impulse Society: America in the Age of Instant Gratification," examines the accelerating and increasingly intimate -- and troubling -- relationship between the marketplace and the Self. Check out the book's official website at http://theimpulsesociety.wordpress.com/
He also blogs at Psychology Today. http://www.psychologytoday.com/blog/the-impulse-society
The Impulse Society follows on the success of two earlier books - The End of Food (2008), about the global food economy; and The End of Oil (2004), which explored the challenges of our fossil-fuel economy. Roberts work has written for The Los Angeles Times, The Washington Post, and The (UK) Guardian and has appeared in Slate, USA Today, The New Republic, Newsweek, The Christian Science Monitor, Rolling Stone, and Outside magazine.
Roberts has delivered lectures and keynotes to a variety of organizations, including the World Economic Forum (Davos), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the Biotechnology Industry Organization, the Council on Foreign Relations, and the World Affairs Council. He lives in Washington State.
You can follow him on Twitter @pauledroberts.
Paul Roberts is the author of The End of Oil, a finalist for the New York Public Library's Helen Bernstein Book Award in 2005. He has written about resource economics and politics for numerous publications, including the Los Angeles Times, the Washington Post, and Rolling Stone, and lectures frequently on business and environmental issues. He lives in Washington State.
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Here in the land of the 30 minute shower, oversized SUVs that get 10 miles to the gallon and houses three times the size of the ones we grew up in, we Americans are squandering energy at an ever increasing rate. In "The End of Oil: On The Edge of A Perilous New World" Paul Roberts argues that this must change....and soon. During the energy crisis of the mid 1970's most Americans began to slowly but surely wean themselves away from oil. Jimmy Carter, not a particularly effective President but a man with considerable moral authority convinced the American people that conservation was both the moral and the patriotic thing to do. The people followed the Presidents lead and in an incredibly short time cut back their consumption of oil dramatically. But market forces took hold and oil prices plummeted. Suddenly there was a glut of oil on the market again. Gradually we got back to our old habits and subsequent administrations actually encouraged our short-sightedness. Roberts argues that the present administration continues to lead us down a dangerous path. By totally dismissing conservation, failing to fund R&D for alternative fuels and encouraging increased production and consumption of fossil fuels, our government is setting us up for disaster.
According to Paul Roberts, the world is rapidly depleting stocks of fossil fuels. Within the next 10-20 years the world is likely to reach peak production of oil. Once that happens the world could be in for a very rough ride. The oil that remains will be increasing harder to get to and as a result considerably more expensive. Add to that the rapidly increasing demand in places like China and India and suddenly we have a much bigger problem to deal with. Are not the people of China and India and other such nations entitled to their fair share of the worlds resources? And even if many Americans couldn't care less about people halfway around the world do they not worry about their own children and grand-children? And what about the increased pollution that comes from our continued reliance on fossil fuels? It seems to me that we are taking an awful lot for granted here.
In his incredibly well-research book, Roberts discusses the myriad facets of this most complicated problem. Learn all about the current status and the prospects for alternative fuels like hydrogen, wind and solar among others. A good bit of the book also delves into the politics of energy and who the important players are. On a personal note I can tell you that as a result of reading "The End of Oil" I am even more acutely aware of the energy I personally consume. I am 53 years old. Before I leave this earth I hope to see one of two things occur....the Red Sox win the World Series or a President with the intestinal fortitude to tell Americans the truth and lead us on these important issues. I am not optimistic on either count.
He makes no assumptions about the reader's knowledge, and spends the first part of hte book explaining how the world got to be in this mess we are in, by deliniating the different energy eras throughout human history.
Common themes arise, in each era, and they combine to help the reader gain a perspective upon why things are they way they are.
Mr. Roberts did his research well, with an extensive foot note and bibliography section, yet in the course of this research he did more than just peruse reports and other books on the matter. He managed to gain access to the indutry leaders, talking and touring the facilties of the Russians and the Saudis.
If there is any fault, it is that the last chapeters of the book, wherein he extrapolates from his knowledge and research what he forsees occuring, seems a little less well developed than the earlier chapters. True, they are based upon fact and not prgnostication, but the writing seems at times rushed, and not up to the level of some of the earlier chapters.
Regardless, this is a book that I highly recommend reading, and is one that I have bought extra copies of for insertion into my "lending library" of books I share and recommend to friends.
I do have a few bones to pick.
Mr. Roberts, like many mainstream authors and news people, still refer to nuclear Energy as "Clean Energy" On page 175 specifically he uses the phrase "nuclear is clean, after all" and he puts this phrase into parentheses as if to remind the reader of something so obvious that it might be overlooked. I would just like to point out that nuclear energy is not clean energy. One can only accept the clean nuclear energy theory if one ignores the entire process of mining uranium ore and then the processing of it into an enriched state so it can be used as fuel in a reactor. The smoke may not be belching out of the exhaust stack at the reactor itself but it did belch out of the exhaust pipes of the mining equipment used to gather the raw material and the coal fired power plants that made the electricity necessary for the milling and enrichment process. If you can wrap your thoughts around this process you will see that nuclear energy is very carbon intense. If, dear reader, you don't want to take my word for it and I encourage you to not take my word, I would refer you to the works of Dr. Helen Caldicott.
Second, I don't think that Mr. Hugo Chavez, "Elected" President of Venezuela, is anti-American or unstable as the author writes on more than one occasion. I think that Mr. Chavez developed his distaste for US President George Bush after the latter President used the CIA to try and wipe out the former President. I know that the two of them have radically different political philosophies however I feel that any country in need of funding which has an abundance of anything valuable like oil and natural gas would be happy to sell it in a free, open world market. Which is what Venezuela has been doing right along. I can't blame Mr. Chavez for his dislike and mistrust of the current US executive branch and its' illegal activities towards his country because frankly, Bush and his illegal dealings in this country have me nervous too.
Other than that there are a few minor things. Mr. Roberts says nothing about Bio-Diesel and its use by many European bus fleets. The benefit being that Bio-diesel is available now, it works with current technology and it has the benefit of reducing the sooty diesel exhaust emissions drastically for relatively little expense. There are several mentions on the general subject of renewable fuels but nothing too detailed. There is much focus on gas as a bridge fuel.
Over all I have to say I enjoyed this book. The opening chapters on energy history were excellent. I hadn't had the subject put to me in such an engaging way.
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