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Future Hype: The Myths of Technology Change Kindle Edition
Everyone knows that today’s rate of technological change is unprecedented. With breakthroughs from the Internet to cell phones to digital music and pictures, everyone knows that the social impact of technology has never been as profound or overwhelming. But how much is truth and how much is hype?
Future Hype surveys the past few hundred years to show that many of the technologies we now take for granted transformed society in far more dramatic ways than more recent developments so often touted as unparalleled and historic. In this thoughtful book, Bob Seidensticker exposes the hidden costs of technology—and helps both consumers and businesses take a shrewder position when the next “essential” innovation is trotted out.
- ISBN-13978-1523087617
- PublisherBerrett-Koehler Publishers
- Publication dateApril 9, 2006
- LanguageEnglish
- File size1417 KB
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Editorial Reviews
Review
—Bob Frankston, VisiCalc developer and computer industry pioneer
“This clear-eyed, level-headed, historically sophisticated view of the realities of technological change by a knowledgeable insider will be absorbing reading for early adopters, neo-Luddites, and everyone in between.”
—Edward Tenner, author of Why Things Bite Back: Technology and the Revenge of Unintended Consequences
“Future Hype is a great antidote to the familiar boosterism about unprecedented technological growth. Seidensticker puts technological change into historical perspective, which enables us to measure progress against what we have known, rather than against what we are promised.”
—Henry Petroski, Aleksandar S. Vesic Professor of Civil Engineering and Professor of History, Duke University, and author of Pushing the Limits
“…. a wonderful compendium of the way the world works, and not just the way it should work. Future Hype reveals when we should be optimistic and when we should be skeptical…. An important contribution.”
—Michael Shermer, Publisher, Skeptic magazine and the "Skeptic" columnist for Scientific American
About the Author
Excerpt. © Reprinted by permission. All rights reserved.
The further backward you look, the further forward you can see.
—WINSTON CHURCHILL
THE GAME OF CHESS DATES back to India fourteen hundred years ago. Legend says that the local ruler was so delighted by the game that he offered its inventor the reward of his choice. The inventor’s request was defined by the game board itself: a single grain of rice for the first chess square, two for the next, four for the next, and so on, doubling with each square through all sixty-four. Unaccustomed to this kind of sequence, the ruler granted this seemingly trivial request. Little did he realize that the rice begins to be measured in cups by square fourteen, sacks by square twenty, and tons by square twenty-six. The total comes to about three hundred billion tons —more rice than has been harvested in the history of humanity.
Like the king in the chess story, most of us are inexperienced in this kind of exponential increase. Let’s look at a present day example. In 1971, Intel introduced the 4004, its first microprocessor, with a performance of 0.06 MIPS (million instructions per second). Intel’s Pentium Pro was introduced in 1995 with 300 MIPS, a five-thousand-fold performance increase in twenty-four years—about one doubling every two years. A car making the same speed increase would now have a top speed of about Mach 700. Give it another twenty-four years at the same rate of increase, and its top speed would exceed the speed of light.2
Moore’s Law, named after Intel cofounder Gordon Moore, predicts this exponential rise in computer performance: every two years, microprocessor speed doubles. Again. This law has been startlingly accurate for three decades, and the progress it predicts is expected to continue, at least for the near future. Because there is no precedent for this rapid performance improvement, we tend to view computers and their rapid change with wonder.
My own career of twenty-five years as a digital hardware designer and a programmer and software architect has been tied to Moore’s Law. Ever since my high school years in the 1970s, I’ve been immersed in computer technology and have been an energetic cheerleader for technology in general. I was in awe of the change it brought about and was delighted to be a small part of that change. Change was exciting. And it was all around us—I grew up with the space program and jumbo jets, nuclear power and skyscrapers, Future Shock and Megatrends. Exponential change seemed to be everywhere we looked.
To make sure we’re all clear what exponential change looks like, figure 1 shows the differences between no change, linear change, and exponential change. The vertical axis is unlabeled—it could represent transistors in microprocessors, dollars for compound interest, the number of bacteria grown in a petri dish, or the grains of rice in the chess story. While they may start out slowly, exponential curves eventually snowball.
As I gained experience, I came to realize that change for its own sake wasn’t as desirable for the software user as the software developer imagined. Users wanted new software to answer to bottom-line demands. Who would have guessed? Coolness alone was no longer enough—users demanded that software pull its weight, as they would for any other purchase.
They were right, of course. New software must provide sufficient additional benefits to outweigh the cost and aggravation of adopting it. This is also true for other consumer products. The consumer might think: I like that digital camera, but it uses a new type of memory card. Will it become a standard or an unsupported dead end, like so many other products? Should I make MP3 copies of my favorite songs or keep them on CD? Is HDTV (High-Definition TV) really here, or is the current hype another false alarm? In general, is the latest hot product something that will last, or is it just a fad? The early adopters are quick to make this leap, but the chasm must be narrowed considerably for the majority of us. Change for its own sake wasn’t as delightful as I’d thought, and I came to see things more from the user’s perspective.3
image
Figure 1. Exponential change contrasted with linear change and no change. The exponential curve doubles every time period. It might double every day if measuring bacteria growth or every decade if measuring number of miles of railroad track.
The high failure rate of new products challenges the inevitability of exponential change. A bigger challenge came as I studied high-tech products from the past, looking for precedents against which to compare my own projects. I wondered, why were these old products successful? and how could I apply what I learned to my own work? As I learned more about the history of technology, I was surprised to find examples that the exponential model could not explain. I gradually realized that there was a different way—a more accurate way—to look at such change.4
The exponential model as a universal explanation for and predictor of technological change is at best an approximation and at worst a delusion. We can sustain it only by selecting just the right examples and ignoring all the rest. Technology does not always continuously improve. For example, commercial airplane speeds increased steadily for a while but halted when airlines realized that expensive supersonic travel didn’t make business sense. Highway speed limits increased steadily but also hit a ceiling. Record heights for skyscrapers increased rapidly during the first third of the twentieth century but have increased only moderately since then. Use of nuclear power has peaked, and manned space exploration halted after we reached the moon.
Specific areas of technology advance at different rates and come to the fore at different times. Cathedral building emerged during the 1200s while other technologies languished. Printing underwent dramatic change in the late 1400s, then surged again in the early 1800s as mechanized presses provided cheap books and magazines. Steam power and mills had their heyday; later, it was electricity and electrical devices. There are dozens of examples of a specific technology surging forward and then maturing and fading back into the commonplace.
Perhaps the most venerable use of the exponential model has been to represent world population growth, but even here it’s an imperfect metaphor. In the 1960s and ‘70s, experts warned that the world’s population was growing exponentially, and crowding would quickly get worse. Famine was just around the corner. Though dramatic, the model was inaccurate: world population growth is slowing and is expected to peak midcentury, and the populations of dozens of countries are already falling in population (not counting immigration).
5Despite the common perception, the impact of technology on society today is comparatively gentle. To see a truly serious example of the collision of technology and society, look at Britain during the Industrial Revolution almost two centuries ago. In 1811, armed gangs of Luddites smashed the textile machines that displaced their handmade crafts. Several years and over ten thousand men were required to put down the rebellion. The unrest spread to the Continent, where the word “sabotage” was coined—from the French word sabot, the wooden shoes used by workers to smash or jam machines. In the space of a generation, independent work on farms had given way to long sixday weeks in noisy and dangerous factories. Our own technological growing pains seem minor by comparison.
It’s easy to focus on the recent at the expense of the old, but doing so can lead to a distorted view of our current situation. New products loom disproportionately large, often simply because they’re new. The image of previous generations of Americans living quiet, static lives is fiction; they dealt with disruptions caused by technological innovations every bit as challenging and exciting as our own: the telegraph and electricity, the car and railroad, anesthesia and vaccines, concrete and steel, newspapers and mail. And if we go even further back, we see the fundamental developments on which society is based: agriculture, metallurgy, the beginnings of engineering, writing, textiles, transportation, timekeeping, basic tools and weapons, and so on. Are today’s products really so amazing compared to those on which they were built? Too often we mistake a new technology for an important one.
Part of the problem is a narrow definition of technology. Obviously, the Internet, computer, and cell phone fit into this category. These are in the news and in our awareness. But this book will use a very broad definition of technology, including these new technologies as well as older and less glamorous ones mentioned above. Metallurgy, textiles, and all the rest were high tech at one point, they are still important to society, and examples from these older technologies will be liberally used in this book to illustrate that today’s issues have, in fact, been around for a long time.6
Sometimes the prevailing view of reality is an oversimplification. For example, small children are often taught that “All ocean creatures are fish.” Though incomplete, it’s a step in the right direction. When the children are a little older, we might teach them that all ocean creatures are fish—except whales and dolphins. When they are older still, we teach them that all ocean creatures are fish except marine mammals (like whales and dolphins), crustaceans (like crabs and lobsters), bivalves (like oysters and scallops), cephalopods (like nautilus and squid), and so on.
We frequently hear that the nature and rate of change in today’s technologies are unprecedented. But like the fish simplification for children, this tells far less than the whole story; it helps explain some of what we see, but is inaccurate—and dangerously so. Leave behind the children’s version of technology change, and explore how it is really affecting society and how it will impact us in the future.
We live in a technology-dense world… . We are terrifyingly naked without knowing elementary things about how [technologies] work.
—JOHN LIENHARD, The Engines of Our Ingenuity (2000)
Product details
- ASIN : B005LY2EMM
- Publisher : Berrett-Koehler Publishers (April 9, 2006)
- Publication date : April 9, 2006
- Language : English
- File size : 1417 KB
- Text-to-Speech : Enabled
- Screen Reader : Supported
- Enhanced typesetting : Enabled
- X-Ray : Not Enabled
- Word Wise : Not Enabled
- Sticky notes : On Kindle Scribe
- Print length : 276 pages
- Best Sellers Rank: #1,320,390 in Kindle Store (See Top 100 in Kindle Store)
- #492 in Engineering Patents & Inventions
- #989 in History of Engineering & Technology
- #1,439 in Social Aspects of Technology
- Customer Reviews:
About the authors
After graduating from MIT in 1980, Bob designed digital hardware, about which he wrote his first book, "The Well-Tempered Digital Design" (Addison-Wesley, 1986). He has programmed in a dozen computer languages and in environments ranging from punch cards, to one of the first windowing environments, to MS-DOS, to Windows (starting with version 1.0).
Bob is a co-contributor to 14 software patents and has worked at a number of technology companies from a 10-person startup to Microsoft and IBM.
Since leaving Microsoft, Bob has focused on writing. "Future Hype: The Myths of Technology Change" (Berrett-Koehler, 2006) explored technology change--how we see it and how it really works.
"Cross Examined: An Unconventional Spiritual Journey" is his first novel.
Bob lives in the Seattle area with his wife Sandy and dog Wheezer.
Discover more of the author’s books, see similar authors, read author blogs and more
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Future Hype shows us the advantages and disadvantages of the rate of change and how some products really don't change anything. He attacks such myths as the idea that inventions are being created faster and that technology is inevitable.
His logic is very sound and he uses both modern examples and examples from history to support his reasoning. By the end of the book you will dismiss most of the hype and be a little better for it.
/r/futurology be damned, the future looks nothing like the scince fiction fantasies people envision.
So this was obviously a book whose message I was already willing to receive; yet I feel I learned a lot from it. The author presents a model of historical (technological/social) change that is complex enough to be believable and simple enough to be understandable. It also has made me much more aware of the prevalence of "future hype" in many areas of life. One area in which that hype really thrives, of course, is advertising. The author's overall argument, I think, encourages people to be skeptical of advertisers' claims, and in many ways he really is encouraging (most) people *not* to buy the latest gadgets. Let the early adopters adopt the fancy new toy, he says, and even when it does eventually become "tried and true," ask yourself whether you really need it. (I read in an interview that Seidensticker's PDA is a 3x5 notecard and a pencil.) So, essentially, he's advising consumers to take it easy and not be so worried about keeping up with the Joneses. His advice is timely for businesses and other institutions that need to make decisions about what to buy, as well.
I've been speaking somewhat abstractly so far, but the book is anything but abstract. This is one case where the delightfully colorful cover well represents the lively entertainment within. In addition to being a persuasive argument about technology and society, it's also chock-full of entertaining stories about technology and change from the last 20 years, the last century, the last thousand years, the last eight thousand years. One story that keeps making me smile is the one about the farmer who just couldn't believe that the telegraph could transfer a message faster than his team of horses--so he challenged the telegraphers to a race. He lost. Seidensticker's point is that new technologies have been delighting, scaring, and surprising people for a long, long time. So the book promotes a more educated and skeptical attitude toward technology, a more realistic perspective, and does so by taking time to entertain the reader with lots of fun stories. It reminded me quite a bit of Carl Sagan. (And is there any higher praise?)
But the author does not address the main arguments posited by futurists. He thinks the internet is not a 'big deal' and argues that the telephone and - GASP- the telegraph were more profound innovations. That is clearly, and objectively, untrue. The telegraph, while one of the first global electronic communicative technologies, did not have the impact of the internet. Sure it spawned other innovations, and helped communication technology get to the modern levels, but it never had the same impact on the average person life. It enabled people to communicate across continent, if the need arose, but it did not create a virtual world that encompasses a large percentage of the modern economic, social, and personal life. Neither does address the implications of exponential growth in computing power. The author believes that computer technology advances exponentially because it is still new. While the may be true, and computing power will eventually level off, it does not address how increased computer capabilities affect us. He would have us believe the A.I. is the only eventual revolution, and that does not seem to be advancing that quickly. This ignores the power computers have given us in modelling the world, and advancing our scientific understanding and capabilities to a while new level; one that would never have been possible without them. He never discusses how new technology allows the creation of even newer ones!
But as a skeptic of the idea of singularity, I agree that technology is unpredictable, and that it can only move with the society, and not vice versa (to an extent).